主 题：Extrapolative Households and Strategic Developers in China’s Land and Housing Market
主讲人：孙伟增 博士、副教授
时 间：2024年1月10日 14:00
地 点：敏行楼102会议室
英文摘要：This paper delves into the intertwined land and housing markets in China to explore households’ extrapolative behaviors and developers’ strategic interactions. Our stylized model predicts that when households extrapolate in the housing market, developers with nearby housing stocks strategically bid higher in auctions, capitalizing on households’ mistakes of extrapolation. Leveraging the exogeneity of land auctions’ dates, we show that higher land premiums lead to concurrent increases in the prices and transaction volumes of nearby houses, consistent with the assumption that households extrapolate in the housing market. Furthermore, we find that developers with housing stock within 3-km of the auctioned land paid a 3.8 percent higher premium. We implement various tests to rule out alternative explanations and exploit a policy reform that regulates house prices to provide further support to the notion of developers manipulating homebuyers’ behaviors. These findings complement the theoretical insights on extrapolative households in housing markets and highlight a novel channel through which firms engage with such households.
【专家简介】中央财经大学经济学院副教授，中国城市经济学会房地产专业委员会专家委员，中国房地产中青年学者30人论坛成员，中国国土经济学会区域战略青年学者菁英会成员，中国数量经济学会第十四届理事会理事，入选国家级青年人才计划。研究领域包括城市经济学、区域经济学、房地产经济学等。在American Economic Journal: Economic Policy、Journal of Urban Economics、《中国社会科学》《经济研究》等国内外知名期刊发表论文80余篇。主持国家自然科学基金青年和面上项目、北京社会科学基金重点项目等，获得第五届洪银兴经济学奖、世界华人不动产学会年会最佳论文奖、亚洲房地产学会年会最佳论文奖等学术荣誉和奖励。